Clean-tech to the rescue regionally, nationally, and globally in strange times

Many old certainties are gone, and it is unclear what could replace them. But even with fewer ‘knowns’ and more ‘known unknowns’ and ‘unknown unknowns’, we know that innovations – particularly in the rapid development of clean-tech – will bring environmental as well as economic benefits, plus answers to the growing energy security challenge. Here, we explain why radical early funding solutions are also needed, including our thoughts and recommendations.

News – (see below)

♦ The Government is introducing   “a sweeping package of growth measures” “entrepreneurs, workers and communities” that will “slash red tape to help businesses scale up” 

♦ The US is withdrawing from many environmentally-related organisations, climate research programmes, and renewable energy projects. But China made it clear at the 2026 Davos World Economic Forum (WEF) that net-zero is one of its priority targets.

Creating new certainties in a world of rapidly expanding uncertainties?

– Here is the green answer. What was the sustainable question?

Former US Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld once noted that in the future we will face ‘known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns’. Knowing the right answers is even more important today in a traumatically changing world, where businesses crave certainty more than anything else.

Since his famous – or infamous – 2002 comments, global affairs have become infinitely more complicated. Wars, rising temperatures, the unfolding potential of AI, and a swirling sea change in global politics have created even more uncertainty … with worse expected to follow.

But there is at least one bright light ahead.

There is a range of underlying factors in the gathering multi- or interconnected polycrisis. Key ones include energy sourcing and use, emissions, harmful waste, air quality, water pollution, land and soil degradation, biodiversity threats, extreme weather and flooding, plus sea level rise.

Fortunately, many can be tackled with scaled-up advanced technology where the baseline game-changer is innovation – and particularly low-carbon climate-, green-, and clean-tech innovations.

Given recent monumental changes, a primary challenge for government, investors, and innovators is not only climate change but also the vital need for energy security, which innovation can reliably support.

For clean-tech, energy security is now a major elephant in the room and an investment opportunity that promises long-term stability and growth, reassuring policymakers and investors alike.

Seen through a wider lens, the efficiency, flexibility, technical superiority, and low costs of clean-tech mean that its benefits extend beyond the environment to the economy, commerce, and geopolitics.

So how do we boost clean-tech? The answer is both financial and practical.

But before we look closely at how the funding environment can be improved, a whistle-stop review of current knowns and multiple unknowns helps to set the clean business in context.

RedCAT was founded to close the Valley of Death commercialisation gap that prevents many promising UK post-prototype innovations from safely crossing into proven, beckoning global markets.

To date, RedCAT has helped turn £3 million in funding into inward investment of £30 million and counting, created 300-plus new jobs, and taken some 46 new products and services to market.

That £1:£10 ratio is an impressive ROI (return on investment).

Given current projections, the clean-tech sector is expected to create a UK market worth £1 trillion by 2030, but realising this potential requires sustained, strategic government support and investment over the coming years.

Two particular issues that RedCAT addresses closely are funding and scaling.

On the US side of ‘The Pond’, 2026 will see a booming increase in green-innovation investments, according to Bloomberg research, with the caveat that startups seeking funding must make a strong business case beyond just cutting carbon.

The UK funding environment remains less developed and more risk-averse, especially in areas such as early-stage innovation and scaling, which must change to unlock strategic national benefits from clean tech.

‘Tell Sid’ was the Government’s 2000 way of letting the public know that investing in British Gas privatisation was a good idea. It worked! Today, we have a similar message to share.

RedCAT’s message to the government is that increased public investment in UK cleantech innovation will stimulate private sector confidence, boost the economy, and deliver high returns, making it a compelling political strategy.

What do we know, don’t know, and don’t know we don’t know?

– So, what do we think we know?

We can say with confidence that climate change is happening. This is supported by overwhelming scientific evidence that human fossil-fuel-based activities are driving global warming. The last ten years have been among the warmest on record, with 2026 set to continue this trend. Low-carbon solutions, greater energy efficiency, and the wider use of renewable energy can help to end this.

Rising temperatures mean more frequent and intense heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, ice-sheet melting, and sea-level rises. Atmospheric concentrations of CO₂, methane, and nitrous oxide are at their highest levels in 800,000 years. The good news is that our innovative technologies have the potential to harness and use these fugitive emissions on a wide scale.

We actually face a triple interconnected crisis of climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution. These are straining natural carbon sinks (forests, oceans, soil). Adopting green technologies and renewable energy on a wide scale can reduce these threats.

– What do we know we don’t know?

We do not know the full extent of future warming. Even with known emission levels, the impact of future temperature rises is hard to calculate because how different climate factors interact is complex. Clean-tech, in addition to being commercially attractive, follows the precautionary principle.

We also have an inexact understanding of future tipping points and when feedback loops might become irreversible, such as widespread permafrost thawing and fundamental changes in deep ocean currents.

How different combinations of national policies and international agreements, such as the Paris Agreement and emerging carbon markets, work together remains to be seen.

Also, how these will affect regional rainfall, drought, and extreme weather events is unclear. Researchers are investigating phenomena such as atmospheric rivers, which transport large volumes of water across intercontinental distances.

“The thing with net zero and heat waves is we’re damned if we do, but we’re completely stuffed if we don’t” – Prof Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick of the Australian National University.

– Our known unknowns

We have very little idea how major initiatives, such as the 2025 UN COP30 climate summit in Brazil, which failed to agree on a global phase-out of fossil fuels, will turn out. RedCAT was one of more than 140 companies and more than 80 countries at COP30 urging governments to commit to a firm deliverable roadmap for the transition away from fossil fuels.

Perhaps no one can predict the full extent of decisions from the Trump White House. The President’s closure of highly-regarded climate research institutions, such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), stepping away from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, plus opposition to proven technologies such as offshore wind, is broadly seen as negative.

It is difficult to know the precise economic costs and benefits of a future green economy. Equally, it is hard to know the cost of doing nothing now! The precautionary principle prevails again.

Another unknown is the human factor in terms of population growth, economic activity, and consumerism, as well as the politics of the future world.

While nations focus on a thawing Arctic and a Greenland land-grab, one possible alternative is a much colder North Atlantic if the Gulf Stream, part of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), slows down due to the rapid thawing of Greenland’s ice sheet.

This could dilute salt concentrations that drive the world’s deep-ocean circulation currents, potentially making Europe’s winter seas ice-bound by 2100, plunging the UK climate into colder seasons, and unleashing untold impacts on global agriculture.

It is important to remember that Birmingham in the UK shares its 52.4°N latitude with ice-bound Churchill in Hudson Bay, Canada, where polar bears roam freely. Other British cities are on the same latitude as chilly Calgary and frozen Moscow.

– Some of our unknown unknowns

The planet could surprise us with high-impact environmental events and natural phenomena we have not yet thought of.

The future could also see unprecedented global conflicts, further technological breakthroughs, societal collapses, and agricultural mayhem, with impacts we cannot currently anticipate.

The intensity of change might also trigger climate feedback mechanisms, self-reinforcing cycles, and natural processes that existing climate models cannot reveal.

– A crucial unknown unknown

What would happen if all the worst-case scenarios above came together is beyond our current ability to calculate, let alone mitigate. But an equally important unknown unknown is what will happen if we do sit and do nothing now?

What Donald Rumsfeld said – and the historic precedent

His actual 2002 words were, “… as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is, we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don’t know we don’t know.

“And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tends to be the difficult ones.”

The last five post-Covid years have seen a new range of threats emerge

– Long-term clean, green, climate-tech investments with multiple-benefits

A hurdle that almost all low-carbon innovators face is raising early-stage capital.

However, energy security is a rapidly growing concern as global supply chains become more unreliable and turbulent. Fortunately, clean-tech offers a solution that can address multiple problems.

Part of our mission at RedCAT is to help both investors with whom RedCAT works very closely and experts in local and national government understand this significant ongoing realignment.

Specifically, we think it is important to use RedCAT’s extensive commercialisation experience to argue for targeted cleantech finance, patient capital, and specific government support.

The size of the market and the huge level of global commitment

The International Energy Agency (IEA – https://www.iea.org/) says the global market for clean, green, climate-technology will triple by 2035, close to recent world crude oil market values.

Meanwhile, more than 80 nations backed a 2025 COP30 motion in Brazil to establish a roadmap to curb fossil fuel use. In parallel, circa 100 countries responsible for emitting 82% of global emissions have now made net-zero pledges, including China.

“We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them” – Albert Einstein.

Investment v risks v energy dependency

But the appetite for early-stage, capital-intensive climate infrastructure remains comparatively low.

This is largely because payback periods are seen as long, risky, and potentially expensive compared to, say, the development of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) or sustainable software.

However, because the world is changing rapidly, the situation viewed from the opposite end of the telescope suggests a different priority.

The UK bought almost no gas directly from Russia in 2025 after import bans began in 2023. However, gas could be entering the UK via the EU as LNG or crude oil refined in third countries.

The UK depends on LNG (liquified natural gas) imports via Milford Haven, home to two of the UK’s three major terminals – South Hook LNG and Dragon LNG – that feed the National Grid and power stations.

We also import hydroelectric energy from Norway via North Sea seabed interconnectors, with a capacity of 1.4 gigawatts (GW), serving some 1.4 million homes. The actual figures fluctuate widely.

The UK also imported electricity from Europe via interconnectors at record levels in 2024/2025 due to a fall in UK generating capacity. France, Norway, the Netherlands, and Belgium are key suppliers.

Perceived risks v real risks.

Dragged ship anchors that disrupt the complex energy and data communication pipelines and cables crisscrossing the floors of the Baltic and North Seas put at risk a sophisticated network that balances energy flows across a wide geographical area. This could include Bulgaria’s advanced renewable sector and, eventually, the proposed long interconnectors bringing thermal energy from Iceland.

It might also cast the Government’s much-criticised strategy to develop a Scottish Highlands onshore wind industry and a high-profile distribution system, plus an efficient solar sector, in a different light.

RedCAT and clean-tech innovation

These risks and opportunities also highlight RedCAT’s role in commercialising technologies that raise energy efficiency, replace fossil fuels with renewable energy, turn waste into assets, cut carbon footprints, and nurture small innovations with big impacts when scaled up nationally and globally.

However, because we work closely with the government, we must also explain to senior politicians and civil service teams how they can help innovators to succeed and boost the UK economy.

Until now, clean-tech companies have been obliged to fill the funding gap with a combination of grants, SEIS/EIS schemes, angels, and venture capital (VC).

Investment options

Understanding how these work individually helps highlight better options, particularly where government intervention has previously proved effective in similar sectors.

– The Seed Enterprise Investment Scheme (SEIS) and Enterprise Investment Scheme (EIS) are Government initiatives that give significant tax incentives to individual investors buying new shares in small, high-risk companies, thereby helping them to raise capital.

– Alternatively, angel investors are wealthy individuals who invest their own money, expertise, and connections in early-stage businesses or startups in exchange for equity (part-ownership).– Blended finance uses public or philanthropic capital to attract private sector funding to sustainable and climate projects in emerging and developing markets, seen as too risky for commercial investors.

– Patient capital is a long-term sustainable growth investment that emphasises higher long-term returns over quick short-term profits for innovative startups and scale-ups requiring additional support and higher-risk tolerance.

– Meanwhile, venture capital (VC) offers private financing for high-growth potential startups and small businesses by providing capital, expertise, and networks in exchange for equity.

Points the Government might consider

Investments in major infrastructure assets can be involved. Much work may be needed before profits begin to be made. Costs can escalate suddenly. Projects can take a long time to mature.

Another potential negative to be avoided is that if we don’t start soon, the UK will miss the boat and a huge opportunity.

However, on the very positive side, what UK clean-tech can achieve is unique and ‘brilliant’. It can also be linked to monumental innovation, with micro-scale support from adventurous, forward-focused SMEs.

Early intervention needed

So what can be done to increase early-stage investment?

Some balls fall in the Government’s court in much the same way that public funding used as a catalyst helped the fledgling wind and solar industries to compete in open commercial markets.

Part of the problem might be that there is now little collective memory in central and local government of how business support was successful in previous decades. RedCAT is trying to fill this gap.

There is also a UK risk that, without imminent action, essential innovation could stall. This makes it a critical time to future-proof national energy resilience and security.

Building a new funding framework with the government

An early priority must be to make more patient capital available to cleantech innovators.

The British Business Bank invests in venture and venture growth funds, and focuses on early-stage help to build a pipeline of later-stage investment opportunities. But this is in sectors where the UK is traditionally strong. More needs to be done on emerging technologies such as clean tech.

At present, SEIS is generic and sector-agnostic, which makes digital, fintech, and software more appealing due to faster returns. Funding for clean-tech could be made more attractive by, say, creating incentives that scale up, with lower incentives for some (SaaS) and higher for others (cleantech).

Another way forward could be to increase public procurement on proven UK founded clean technologies.

“Although climate change will hurt poor people more than anyone else, for the vast majority of them it will not be the only or even the biggest threat to their lives and welfare” – Bill Gates

Business Secretary Peter Kyle recently explained that, “For too long, Britain’s most promising companies have had to look abroad for the backing they need to grow. Scale-ups that should have become homegrown champions struggle against a system that is too slow and too fragmented. This package changes that.”

He added, “We are placing big bets on the industries where Britain can win, backing our innovators with real firepower, and cutting the red tape that holds them back. This is what decisive government looks like – creating an economy that can grow and deliver prosperity for all.”

Since President Trump’s first election, China has chosen the Davos World Economic Forum (WEF) to unveil its green-centred vision of the future. This year, Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng has urged nations to collaborate with China’s clean-tech exporters and combat emissions.

His message is that “China will pursue green development and share with the world the opportunities.” He added, “We invite enterprises from all over the world to embrace the opportunities from the green and low-carbon transition, and work closely with China in such areas as green infrastructure, green energy, green minerals and green finance.”

China is keen to address concerns, reverse trade barriers against green technology, and increase exports to Europe and the Global South.